Lauri + Kessler + #2 for Tatum — Research Memo

Date: 2026-05-17 Sources: prior verified memos and tests Status: pre-build memo, math walkthrough before scripting

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1. Why Package B (Lauri + Ace + #2) was clean

Package B sent Markkanen ($46.11M) + Ace Bailey ($9.52M) + 2026 #2 pick to Boston for Tatum ($58.46M). The math worked because:

• Total non-pick incoming = $55.63M (pick-rights mode). Below Tatum's $58.46M outgoing — Boston takes back LESS than it sends. No expansion needed, no hard cap.
• Even with signed #2 added ($68.62M total), Boston was below first apron's hard-cap room and within the 125% × Tatum + $250K matching cap ($73.32M).
• Utah's outgoing $55.63M is enough to absorb Tatum at 125% expansion ($69.78M max). Works.
• No sign-and-trade, no BYC, no Bird-restriction timing issues. Pure salary swap.

2. Why Kessler + Ace + #2 was hard

Kessler is an RFA. He has no 2026-27 contract. Any structure that includes him in trade-eligible form must overcome:

• CBA Section 8(d)(iii): if Utah re-signs him via Bird rights at a salary > 120% of his prior salary (he was at $4.88M), he cannot be traded until January 15 of the cap year. The $27M figure is ~553% of his prior salary — locked.
• CBA Section 8(e)(1): S&T contracts max 4 seasons (+ option), 5% raises max. 5y/$156.6M/8% raises is not S&T-compatible.
• Base Year Compensation (Larry Coon Q93): S&T re-sign with raise > 20% and team over cap after signing → Utah outgoing salary for matching is max(prior $4.88M, 50% of new) = half of Kessler's new salary.

For Kessler + Ace + signed #2 with $27M Kessler:

• Utah outgoing for matching (BYC): $13.5M + $9.52M + $12.99M = $36.01M
• Utah max absorb at 125% + $250K: $45.27M
• Tatum at $58.46M > $45.27M. Fails.

Adding Konchar ($6.17M) and Cody Williams ($6.02M) of filler clears Utah's matching but bloats both rosters.

3. Why Kessler 5y/$156.6M required a delayed trade

The user-proposed 5-year, 8%-raise schedule is a Bird re-sign (8% Bird raises, 5 years allowed). It is NOT S&T-compatible (S&T raises max 5%, contract max 4 years + option).

Section 8(d)(iii) then applies: 553% raise blocks trade until 1/15/2027. The Tatum trade can only fire at the 2/2027 deadline or later.

At that point Kessler counts as full $27M outgoing for Utah matching (Bird, not S&T, so no BYC). The math becomes much easier — that's why BR-A1 in the prior test passed cleanly.

4. What changes when Lauri AND Kessler are both in the package

This is the new computation. The headline check:

• Tatum alone outgoing: $58.46M. Max incoming = 125% × $58.46M + $250K = $73,320,707.
• Lauri + Kessler full $27M + #2 rights ($0): $46.11M + $27M + $0 = $73,113,154.
• Difference: Boston is $207,553 under the matching cap. The trade clears matching by a hair.

Same package but with signed #2 ($12.99M): $86.10M, breaks the matching cap by ~$12.8M.

So adding Markkanen to a Kessler + #2 package is a clean swap when:

• The #2 pick conveys as draft rights (zero salary).
• Kessler counts at full salary (not BYC).
• Boston sends Tatum only.

But adding both Markkanen AND a signed #2 pushes Boston over the matching cap unless Boston adds outgoing salary (Hauser, Pritchard, or both) or Kessler is BYC-discounted via S&T.

Practically:

• A1 (Tatum only, Kessler S&T BYC, #2 rights): Boston incoming = $73.11M with BYC discount on Utah's side. Utah outgoing for matching = $46.11M + $13.5M + $0 = $59.61M. Utah max absorb = $74.76M. Both sides pass. Works.
• A2 (signed #2 added): Boston incoming = $86.10M > $73.32M. Fails Boston matching.
• A3 (Tatum + Hauser, #2 rights): Boston outgoing $69.30M, max incoming $86.88M. $73.11M fits. Works.
• A4 (Tatum + Hauser, signed #2): max incoming $86.88M, incoming $86.10M fits. Works.
• A5 (Tatum + Pritchard, #2 rights): max incoming $82.99M, incoming $73.11M fits. Works.
• A6 (Tatum + Pritchard, signed #2): max incoming $82.99M, incoming $86.10M fails by $3.1M.
• A7 (Tatum + Hauser + Pritchard, signed #2): max incoming $96.59M, incoming $86.10M fits.

So adding Hauser (alone) is the minimum Boston outgoing that opens the signed-#2 path.

5. Whether Boston must add salary

Conditionally. The branch points:

For the February 2027 delayed Bird path, the signed #2 pick is essentially mandatory (by then the #2 has been signed for months and is part of Utah's roster). So:

• July 2026 S&T path with pick rights: Tatum alone works.
• July 2026 S&T path with signed #2: Tatum + Hauser works.
• February 2027 Bird-delayed path: signed #2 is the realistic mode; Tatum + Hauser works.

6. Salary assumption summary

All numbers are from prior verified memos. Restated for the model:

• Tatum: $58,456,566
• Hauser: $10,848,215
• Pritchard: $7,767,857
• Boston active 14: $187,730,180
• Markkanen: $46,113,154
• Kessler face Y1: $27,000,000 (modeled); also $20M, $25M, $30M for sensitivity
• Kessler BYC outgoing for S&T at $27M: $13,500,000 (max($4,878,938 prior, 50% × $27M))
• BYC at $20M: max($4.88M, $10M) = $10,000,000
• BYC at $25M: max($4.88M, $12.5M) = $12,500,000
• BYC at $30M: max($4.88M, $15M) = $15,000,000
• 2026 #2 pick rights: $0 matching
• 2026 #2 pick signed: $12,990,000
• Utah active: $142,158,790
• 2026-27 first apron: $209,000,000

CBA mechanic for Tatum-scale outgoing (> $29M, below first apron): max incoming = 125% × outgoing + $250K. S&T receipt hard-caps receiver at first apron.

7. Outstanding research uncertainties

• 2026 #2 pick exact rookie scale (still ~$12.99M estimate).
• Kessler's negotiated salary (RFA — modeled at four prices).
• Whether the Markkanen $46.11M figure holds without complication (verified to Spotrac in prior memo).
• Whether Utah would actually accept giving up Markkanen + Kessler simultaneously (basketball/business question, not salary).
• Boston TPE inventory (no verified large TPE; not load-bearing here since we're not using one).
• Tatum's exact post-Achilles trade value benchmark (the agent for that work was previously blocked; using general framing).

8. Pre-build conclusion

The Lauri + Kessler + #2 package is not as hard as feared. There are at least four salary-plausible structures, including one (A1) where Boston sends Tatum alone. The complications come from:

1. The signed #2 vs pick rights choice (signed adds $12.99M, breaks matching unless Boston adds Hauser).
2. S&T vs Bird timing (S&T fires July 2026 with BYC; Bird waits until 2/2027 with full salary credit).
3. Hard-cap exposure (S&T variants hard-cap Boston; Bird-delayed variants do not).

Best-case structures going into modeling:

• A1 — Tatum alone for Lauri + Kessler S&T + #2 rights (July 2026 execution, hard cap triggered, clears matching by $207K).
• A3 — Tatum + Hauser for Lauri + Kessler S&T + #2 rights (July 2026, more cushion).
• A4 — Tatum + Hauser for Lauri + Kessler S&T + signed #2 (July 2026, signed pick).
• B2 — Tatum + Hauser for Lauri + Kessler Bird + signed #2 at 2/2027 deadline (no S&T hard cap, full salary credit on both sides).

Building the script now.